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November 15, 2012 / redman59

Time to Slay the Bear

I do not mean bear as in the market here I mean it as in the animal.  In Pennsylvania bear hunting season begins Saturday and I will be off in the remoteness of woods looking to slay the black or hopefully cinnamon bear of PA.  I must say that it comes at a no better time as I really have no desire to allocate money here.  Yesterday I closed out an $AAPL Nov 545 Call for a -67.7% loss and I previously had on and still hold an upside Nov 580/610/610/640 Iron Butterfly that will look to expire worthless for a -100% loss.  These are definitely losers on a trade management and account basis but I put them on accepting that loss in my portfolio.  The loss results in a -2.86% loss in my portfolio.  Not happy but still manageable to overcome in the future.

I am reminded by a post by @jfahmy titled “Don’t Get Discouraged”  that links to other posts that he wrote and all of them are worth a read for times like this.  While many trade declining markets like these and are successful, I have chosen to sit out not feeling like I need to trade.  Early on I had the feeling that I needed to be trading no matter what the market conditions were.  Now when I see markets such as we are witnessing I choose to sit a majority to the side maybe taking some swings at the market like I did in $AAPL (which resulted in losses).  So if you find yourself uncomfortable or notice a change in your mood, just step aside for a bit and save the money.  Not losing money can be as gratifying as making money.  This is something that I have learned through the years and it can feel damn good not to be wrapped up.

So with the current action and political uncertainty that is shoved down the throat by media outlets I can not think of a better time to take a break.  November usually marks a slow time for me anyway as hunting season fully kicks in and it is the time to take part in other activities and come back in full swing.  I have only made trades in $IBM and $AAPL since the end of October and my nightly market research has slacked.  For me this is not a bad thing as this is my break, besides my 2 week fishing vacation to Minnesota in the summer.  I plan on making no trades until the week after Thanksgiving and will choose to take this as a vacation.  This November so far has had me concentrating more on deer muzzleloader hunting, rabbit hunting, and now it’s time for bear hunting to be followed by deer rifle hunting.

I wish traders the best that are trading these markets and don’t feel like you are missing out by standing aside, the market will always be there.  I will say that I like the idea of upside butterfly spreads going out to January.  This is a way one can play the upside with limited risk, low gamma, and still make a decent percentage gain on any rally that we may see.  As for me I am spending today packing for the 5-day trip to Sinnemahoning State Park in middle-PA in hopes of slaying the bear.

Greener times await…


Leave a Comment
  1. SPYderCrusher (@SPYder_Crusher) / Nov 15 2012 10:51 am

    good luck on the bear hunt! I would love to go deer or boar hunting, never been, but want to go

    And definitely concur re your thoughts on trading bad markets. Just too difficult in a bad period

    • redman59 / Nov 15 2012 11:17 am

      Thanks Danny, it’s definitely a good time and a chance to get outdoors into nature. Me and a friend are going to try to float down the river one of the days and see if we can see a bear as everyone is in the woods but there are spots where people can’t get to so thinking bear may be there a long shot but we’ve done the same for deer and seen them, kind of like a contrarian play I guess. Would make for a good story too.

      I think just staying away or small (taking some shots) has been a great change for me. Definitely helps from a psychological stand point as I’ve found times like these to frustrate me more than anything, whether winning or losing on a position as you never know what the next day may bring. Thinking back to the volatility of summer 2011 and those 30,50,70 SPX ranges, hard to go to bed at night with a heavy allocation trying to front run something.

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