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December 26, 2012 / redman59

Liking the Agriculture Play into 2013 on Technicals and Seasonality

In some conversation with newly tabbed and well deserved bloggers to iBankCoin (Rhino & Raul3), we were talking the agriculture industry.  I was thinking about this industry in the past couple days as it saw good momentum in the year and was talked about by many through media and social media in mid-2012.  I also found out that Raul3 wrote a post on the 23rd about this industry titled “Are Farmers Investing For A Bumper Crop?“.

On the morning of Dec 23rd I decided to look through this industry and chart some of the more well-known companies that are related to the agriculture play.  While in some great trading conversation it was highlighted by these distinguished gentlemen to take notice to the seasonality of these agriculture plays.  While charting on Sunday Dec 23rd, I did not look at seasonality but just pulled them up to look at.  Needless to say I love the seasonality here, especially pertaining to February a huge month for gains based on enough data points to make me confident.

When charting I first went to CORN as this was the main talk-of-the-town as it saw a parabolic move  starting in June.  You can see the chart below w/my chart annotations (all from Sunday, Dec 23rd):

  • CORN –  weekly chart, 44 looks like good level to accumulate, support zone couples w/50% fib of 2012 parabolic move

corn_20121223

 

Next you will see some chart annotations of some of the agriculture plays I charted with notes:

  • SMG – note the Relative Strength, like the small basing under 44 & 200sma, Fri volume 87.8% above avg

 

smg_20121223

 

  • MON – strongest ag play in relation to % off 52wk high (-0.48%), volume 50.8% >avg on Friday, like on pullback of 1pt

mon_20121223

  • MOS –  like this setup, looking for 3rd leg up, prior b/o supported w/volume, stop little below last swing low

mos_20121223

  • CF – stock lifted on drop to 200sma but little volume, thinking we get below this time, like 190 level on weekly

cf_20121223

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