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January 31, 2013 / redman59

Trying to Catch Up

It has been longer than I had hoped since I have written a post.  Since I wrote this blog post I have been more inactive than I had hoped.  The inability to monitor the market on a consistent basis is more than I have anticipated.  I have definitely missed much on the social media front as well as I have more miles on the road than I have in minutes watching/studying the market.  If you have referenced anything I have written or sent me a message and I have not responded, my apologies and and if it were a question please ask again as I know I have missed some stuff.  I must give thanks to @CashRocket @TwoSmuth @Rhino_Cap for references in blog posts and on the social stream.

Since that blog post I have closed the VSI-GNC pairs trade and got into a POT-MON pairs trade.  I exited the POT long side on the 29th as I did not want to hold into earnings even though other Ag names have acted well on earnings.  Then today I exited the MON short trade on early weakness.  Then today I put in orders for two trades.  The first was a WLT-KOL pairs trade as I like the WLT chart but due to possible market volatility and inability to constantly monitor the market/social stream, I wanted to short something as well.  With that I chose the Coal ETF.  Anyway I put in the order for a fill at 11.35 (for the pair) hoping to get hit on some later weakness but never got the fill.

I also put in a limit order for AMZN.  Looking at the chart I chose the next weeks expiration cycle (Feb’2) and put on a 255/265/270 Call Butterfly that was filled in the afternoon on weakness.  Looking at the weekly chart I believe the 260 level will act favorably  as 260-263 was a key break out area and I expect this to hold.  Also this is an area where the 10 week SMA comes into play.  Even though I have a short term trade on I expect this to be a big level, so my trade looks to capture the 260-270 range while leaving some profit on anything above 270.  Below is the weekly chart:


And below is the risk profile based on a 1-lot position:


Johnny couldn’t put it any better:

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